Are Yellow Cards Rising? 25 Seasons of Bookings Tracked
Fewer fouls, more bookings. I tracked 25 seasons of yellow cards across England and Europe to see how far card lines have shifted, and where the old numbers no longer hold.
- 3.7English yellows per match, 2025/26
- 3.0English yellows per match, 2001/02
- 32.1%Over 4.5 cards, eight leagues, 2020โ26
- 25Seasons of English bookings tracked
When I started logging scrappy matches, I assumed card counts were basically fixed and only the referee mattered. That assumption shapes every line I set for my cards market picks page, so it deserved a proper test. The question is simple: have yellow cards per match gone up or down, and have the card lines moved with them?
The short answer is up, and by more than I expected. Across the English top four tiers, yellows went from 3.0 per match in 2001/02 to 3.7 in 2025/26, while fouls dropped. The eight-league set tells the same story, and the over 4.5 line now lands far more often than it used to.
Q1Are there really more yellow cards per match now?
The English line spends years drifting around the same level. It hits a low of 2.7 in 2004/05, hovers near 3 for over a decade, then climbs. The sharpest step comes between 2022/23 and 2023/24, from 3.6 to a peak of 4.0. The eight-league set moves from 3.3 in 2005/06 to 3.7 in 2025/26, flatter early on but rising in the same recent seasons.
View the data: yellow cards per match, season by season
| English top four tiers | Eight-league set | |
|---|---|---|
| 2001/02 | 3 cards | โ |
| 2002/03 | 3.2 cards | โ |
| 2003/04 | 3.1 cards | โ |
| 2004/05 | 2.7 cards | โ |
| 2005/06 | 2.9 cards | 3.3 cards |
| 2006/07 | 3.1 cards | 3.4 cards |
| 2007/08 | 2.8 cards | 3.2 cards |
| 2008/09 | 2.8 cards | 3.2 cards |
| 2009/10 | 3 cards | 3.3 cards |
| 2010/11 | 2.9 cards | 3.2 cards |
| 2011/12 | 2.9 cards | 3.2 cards |
| 2012/13 | 2.9 cards | 3.2 cards |
| 2013/14 | 3 cards | 3.2 cards |
| 2014/15 | 3.1 cards | 3.4 cards |
| 2015/16 | 3 cards | 3.4 cards |
| 2016/17 | 3.4 cards | 3.5 cards |
| 2017/18 | 3.1 cards | 3.4 cards |
| 2018/19 | 3.2 cards | 3.5 cards |
| 2019/20 | 3.3 cards | 3.7 cards |
| 2020/21 | 2.9 cards | 3.2 cards |
| 2021/22 | 3.5 cards | 3.7 cards |
| 2022/23 | 3.6 cards | 3.7 cards |
| 2023/24 | 4 cards | 4 cards |
| 2024/25 | 3.8 cards | 3.8 cards |
| 2025/26 | 3.7 cards | 3.7 cards |
What I take from this is that the recent era is a different regime, not a blip. There is one odd dip in 2020/21 on both lines, and the climb resumes straight after it. If your mental baseline for a booking count was formed watching football in the early years of this series, it is probably set too low.
Q2If fouls are falling, why are bookings going up?
This chart surprised me most. English fouls per match fell from 26.4 in 2001/02 to 22.4 in 2025/26, and the eight-league set fell from 28.9 to 22.9 over its run. So players are committing fewer fouls, yet more of them end in a booking.
The ratio makes it concrete: one yellow per 7.8 fouls in 2005/06 against one per 6.1 fouls in 2025/26. Referees are reaching for the card more readily for the same offence count.
View the data: fouls per match over the same seasons
| English top four tiers | Eight-league set | |
|---|---|---|
| 2001/02 | 26.4 fouls | โ |
| 2002/03 | 25.4 fouls | โ |
| 2003/04 | 25.3 fouls | โ |
| 2004/05 | 25.7 fouls | โ |
| 2005/06 | 25.6 fouls | 28.9 fouls |
| 2006/07 | 24.9 fouls | 28 fouls |
| 2007/08 | 23.8 fouls | 28 fouls |
| 2008/09 | 23.5 fouls | 27.5 fouls |
| 2009/10 | 22.6 fouls | 26.4 fouls |
| 2010/11 | 21.5 fouls | 24.9 fouls |
| 2011/12 | 20.3 fouls | 24 fouls |
| 2012/13 | 20.8 fouls | 23.8 fouls |
| 2013/14 | 21.9 fouls | 24.2 fouls |
| 2014/15 | 22 fouls | 24.4 fouls |
| 2015/16 | 21.7 fouls | 24.1 fouls |
| 2016/17 | 22.9 fouls | 24.4 fouls |
| 2017/18 | 22.9 fouls | 24 fouls |
| 2018/19 | 23.2 fouls | 23.9 fouls |
| 2019/20 | 24 fouls | 24.6 fouls |
| 2020/21 | 24.5 fouls | 25 fouls |
| 2021/22 | 21.7 fouls | 22.8 fouls |
| 2022/23 | 21.8 fouls | 22.7 fouls |
| 2023/24 | 21.9 fouls | 22.4 fouls |
| 2024/25 | 22.9 fouls | 23 fouls |
| 2025/26 | 22.4 fouls | 22.9 fouls |
My honest caveat sits here. Recording habits and rule directives on things like dissent and time-wasting change over time, so these lines show what was recorded, not why. I treat the shift as real for pricing purposes, but I don't pretend to know exactly how much is player behaviour and how much is officiating policy.
Q3Which leagues have changed most for card betting?
Comparing early and recent blocks league by league, the rise is far from even. League Two shows the biggest jump, from 2.7 to 3.7, with League One and the Championship close behind. The Premier League moved from 3.2 to 3.8 and the Scottish Premiership from 3.3 to 3.8.
View the data: yellow cards per match: 2005โ10 vs 2021โ26
| 2005/06โ2009/10 | 2021/22โ2025/26 | |
|---|---|---|
| League Two (2,760 / 2,756 matches) | 2.7 cards | 3.7 cards |
| League One (2,760 / 2,757 matches) | 2.9 cards | 3.7 cards |
| Championship (2,760 / 2,758 matches) | 3 cards | 3.8 cards |
| Premier League (1,900 / 1,900 matches) | 3.2 cards | 3.8 cards |
| Scottish Premiership (1,140 / 1,112 matches) | 3.3 cards | 3.8 cards |
| Ligue 1 (1,900 / 1,677 matches) | 3.4 cards | 3.7 cards |
| Bundesliga (1,530 / 1,530 matches) | 3.8 cards | 3.9 cards |
| Serie A (1,900 / 1,900 matches) | 4.4 cards | 4.2 cards |
The continental leagues barely budged by comparison. The Bundesliga went from 3.8 to 3.9, and Serie A actually eased from 4.4 to 4.2, though it remains the most card-heavy league in the set. For me, that says the old gap between English football and Serie A has narrowed a lot, and the lower English tiers are where outdated assumptions cost the most.
Q4How often does over 4.5 yellow cards land now?
This is the table I'd pin above my desk. In 2005/06 to 2009/10, over 4.5 yellows hit 24.7% of matches, which is fair odds of 4.05. In 2020/21 to 2025/26, it hit 32.1%, fair odds of 3.11. Over 3.5 crossed from a minority outcome at 42.0% to slightly more than half of matches at 51.3%.
Notice the first two eras are almost identical, with 42.1% and 24.8% in the middle block. The movement is concentrated in the last two periods, which matches the season chart.
| Seasons | Matches | Yellows/match | Over 3.5 | Over 4.5 | Fair odds 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06โ2009/10 | 16,650 | 3.2 | 42.0% | 24.7% | 4.05 |
| 2010/11โ2014/15 | 16,648 | 3.3 | 42.1% | 24.8% | 4.04 |
| 2015/16โ2019/20 | 16,234 | 3.5 | 47.2% | 28.9% | 3.47 |
| 2020/21โ2025/26 | 19,720 | 3.7 | 51.3% | 32.1% | 3.11 |
Those fair odds are just the inverse of observed frequency, a model rather than a price anyone will offer you. But they give a clean benchmark for judging whether a quoted over line still reflects the past or the present.
The playbook
How we would use these numbers before the next Yellow Cards bet.
- Update your baseline count. Anchor pre-match expectations on the recent era, where the eight-league set averages 3.7 yellows, not the 3.2 of the earliest block. Then adjust for referee and fixture.
- Check overs against 3.11. Over 4.5 yellows landed in 32.1% of recent matches, fair odds 3.11. If a price looks generous only against older norms like 4.05, it may not be value at all.
- Treat leagues separately. League Two rose by +1.0 per match between blocks while Serie A slipped from 4.4 to 4.2. A single cross-league assumption will misprice one end or the other.
Data & method
- Data: English top four tiers 2001/02โ2025/26 (49,509 matches); eight-league set 2005/06โ2025/26 (69,252 matches).
- English top four tiers = Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two, 2001/02โ2025/26 (some early seasons are only partly covered).
- Eight-league set = those four plus Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Serie A and Scottish Premiership, every season 2005/06โ2025/26, so the league mix is constant.
- Yellows per match = average of home plus away yellow cards; fouls per match likewise.
- Fair odds = 1 / observed frequency.
- Cards are counted as recorded in public match records; a second yellow that leads to a red may appear in the yellow count, the red count or both.
- Caveat: Recording practice and competition rules (for example dissent and time-wasting directives) change over time; trends describe what was recorded, not why.
- Caveat: La Liga and other leagues are left out of the long series because early seasons are missing.
Quick Q&A
- Are yellow cards increasing in English football?
- Yes. In the English top four tiers, yellows per match went from 3.0 in 2001/02 to 3.7 in 2025/26, peaking at 4.0 in 2023/24.
- How often do matches go over 4.5 yellow cards?
- Across the eight-league set, over 4.5 yellows hit 32.1% of matches in 2020/21 to 2025/26, up from 24.7% in 2005/06 to 2009/10.
- Which league has the most yellow cards per match?
- Serie A, at 4.2 per match in 2021/22 to 2025/26, though it is the only league in the set that dropped, down from 4.4.
I'm Liora Westgate, and I focus on yellow card markets, where referee habits, derby needle and what's actually on the line shape the numbers more than the names do.
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