Card Lines 2.5 to 5.5: How Often Each Yellow Card Total Lands
How often each total yellow card line lands across 21 European divisions, what the fair price looks like, and why the league matters more than the line.
- 56.2%Matches over 3.5 yellow cards
- 38.0%Matches over 4.5 yellow cards
- 2.63Fair odds, over 4.5 yellow cards
- 67,045Matches analysed
Card lines look simple. Pick a number, decide whether the match goes above it. I wanted to know how often each line from 1.5 to 6.5 actually lands, and what a fair price looks like once you strip out the bookmaker's margin. So I pulled 67,045 matches with full statistics from 21 European divisions.
The headline is that over 3.5 yellow cards landed in 56.2% of matches, while over 4.5 landed in only 38.0%, a fair price of 2.63. If you've come from my yellow card tips page, this is the base layer under every pick I make there. The bigger lesson sits underneath that average, though. The league you're betting on moves these numbers far more than most people expect.
Q1What is the fair price for each yellow card line?
This table is the whole market in one place. Each row is a line, with how often the match went over or under it and the fair odds that frequency implies. Over 2.5 came in 74.4% of matches at a fair 1.34. Over 5.5 dropped to 23.0%, a fair 4.35, and over 6.5 managed only 12.5%.
The drop between 3.5 and 4.5 is the part I watch most closely. That is where the market flips from favouring the over to favouring the under. Under 4.5 landed in 62.0% of matches, a fair price of 1.61.
| Line | Over | Fair odds over | Under | Fair odds under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88.7% | 1.13 | 11.3% | 8.83 |
| 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 25.6% | 3.90 |
| 3.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | 43.8% | 2.28 |
| 4.5 | 38.0% | 2.63 | 62.0% | 1.61 |
| 5.5 | 23.0% | 4.35 | 77.0% | 1.30 |
| 6.5 | 12.5% | 8.03 | 87.5% | 1.14 |
Fair odds = 1 / frequency, no bookmaker margin.
One caveat that runs through everything here. There are no card-market prices in this data, so these fair odds are a benchmark to hold a quoted price against. They don't prove value at any bookmaker. They're also averages across many referees and seasons, and one strict official or a heated derby can sit well away from them.
Q2Which top flights go over the card lines most often?
Here the average breaks apart. Super League Greece went over 4.5 yellow cards in 59.5% of matches, and the Primeira Liga in 57.8%. At the other end, the Eredivisie went over 4.5 in only 21.0% and cleared even 2.5 in just 58.1%. The same line means something completely different depending on where the ball is kicked.
The Premier League sits near the bottom. It went over 3.5 in 47.2% of matches and over 4.5 in 29.1%, both short of the all-matches figures. If you bring a European average into an English fixture, you are leaning towards overs that the league doesn't support.
View the data: over-line hit rates in 11 top flights
| Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 | Over 4.5 | Over 5.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super League Greece | 87.7% | 75.4% | 59.5% | 43.2% |
| Primeira Liga | 85.6% | 73.5% | 57.8% | 41.6% |
| La Liga | 83.9% | 69.8% | 53.3% | 36.8% |
| Süper Lig | 81.0% | 64.9% | 47.5% | 31.1% |
| Serie A | 81.7% | 65.2% | 44.4% | 27.4% |
| Belgian Pro League | 75.2% | 57.6% | 38.7% | 22.6% |
| Bundesliga | 71.0% | 52.1% | 34.1% | 19.5% |
| Ligue 1 | 72.9% | 52.0% | 32.0% | 16.7% |
| Scottish Premiership | 70.7% | 48.6% | 29.8% | 15.5% |
| Premier League | 66.7% | 47.2% | 29.1% | 15.9% |
| Eredivisie | 58.1% | 36.4% | 21.0% | 10.6% |
Southern and south-eastern leagues fill the top of the heatmap, and that matches what I see when I watch them. More stoppages, more protests and referees who reach for the pocket earlier all push the total up.
Q3Do lower divisions produce more yellow cards or fewer?
It depends heavily on the country. Segunda División had the most overs of any lower division, with 57.0% of matches going over 4.5 at a fair 1.76. Serie B was close behind. Both look much more like the busiest top flights than like their own league pyramids.
The English Football League runs the other way. League Two went over 4.5 in only 26.1% of matches, a fair 3.83, and over 3.5 in 45.1%. The Championship went over 3.5 in 47.2%, a fair 2.12, which mirrors the Premier League's rate exactly.
| League | Matches | Over 3.5 | Fair odds | Over 4.5 | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segunda División | 4,136 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 57.0% | 1.76 |
| Serie B | 3,461 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 56.0% | 1.78 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 2,754 | 64.3% | 1.55 | 44.2% | 2.26 |
| Ligue 2 | 3,167 | 52.2% | 1.92 | 33.2% | 3.02 |
| Scottish League Two | 1,494 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 31.1% | 3.21 |
| Championship | 5,517 | 47.2% | 2.12 | 29.1% | 3.44 |
| Scottish Championship | 1,511 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 28.6% | 3.50 |
| Scottish League One | 1,492 | 46.2% | 2.16 | 27.5% | 3.63 |
| League One | 5,365 | 45.4% | 2.20 | 27.0% | 3.71 |
| League Two | 5,402 | 45.1% | 2.22 | 26.1% | 3.83 |
My takeaway is that country matters more than tier. Spanish and Italian football carry their card culture all the way down, and English football stays fairly restrained at every level.
Q4How are yellow card totals spread across different tiers?
This chart groups totals into bands instead of lines, which shows where matches actually finish. Across all matches, 25.6% ended with 0–2 yellow cards, 36.3% with 3–4, 25.6% with 5–6 and 12.5% with 7 or more. The middle band is the most common result almost everywhere.
The tails are where tiers split. In the big five, 12.9% of matches reached 7+ yellow cards, about twice the 6.3% in English and Scottish third and fourth tiers. Those lower tiers also had 0–2 cards in 33.5% of matches. Second tiers lean the other way, with 5–6 cards in 28.0%.
View the data: where the yellow card total lands, by tier
| 0–2 | 3–4 | 5–6 | 7+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big five | 24.5% | 36.6% | 26.0% | 12.9% |
| Other top flights | 24.1% | 34.1% | 26.1% | 15.7% |
| Second tiers | 22.4% | 35.7% | 28.0% | 13.9% |
| Third & fourth tiers | 33.5% | 39.3% | 20.9% | 6.3% |
| All matches | 25.6% | 36.3% | 25.6% | 12.5% |
The playbook
How we would use these numbers before the next Yellow Cards bet.
- Start from the league. Swap the overall 38.0% over 4.5 rate for the league's own figure before you look at a price. Super League Greece at 59.5% and the Eredivisie at 21.0% need completely different starting points.
- Respect the English under. From the Premier League down to League Two, English football tends to come in under 4.5. League Two's 26.1% over rate implies a fair 3.83, so short prices on the over there deserve real suspicion.
- Price against the benchmark. Treat the fair odds as a floor. If a bookmaker's price for over 3.5 is no better than the fair 1.78, you're paying margin with no edge unless the referee or fixture gives you a specific reason.
Data & method
- Data: 21 European divisions, 2016/17–2025/26, 67,045 matches with full match statistics.
- Total yellow cards = home plus away yellow cards in the full match, as recorded.
- Over X.5 means the match total is strictly above the line; under is the complement.
- Fair odds = 1 / observed frequency, with no bookmaker margin.
- Leagues ordered by their over 4.5 rate; tier groups pool all matches of their divisions.
- Cards are counted as recorded in public match records; a second yellow that leads to a red may appear in the yellow count, the red count or both.
- Caveat: There are no card-market prices in the data, so fair odds are a benchmark, not a measure of value at any bookmaker.
- Caveat: League rates average across referees and seasons; a single referee or derby can sit far from them.
Quick Q&A
- How often do matches go over 4.5 yellow cards?
- Across 67,045 matches in 21 European divisions, over 4.5 yellow cards landed in 38.0% of matches. That gives fair odds of 2.63 before any bookmaker margin.
- Which league has the most yellow cards?
- Among top flights, Super League Greece went over 4.5 yellow cards most often, in 59.5% of matches. Among lower divisions, Segunda División led with 57.0%.
- Is over 3.5 yellow cards a good bet in the Premier League?
- The Premier League went over 3.5 yellow cards in 47.2% of matches, so it lands less often than not. A price only makes sense if it beats the fair benchmark for that rate, or if the referee and fixture point clearly towards a busy game.
I'm Liora Westgate, and I focus on yellow card markets, where referee habits, derby needle and what's actually on the line shape the numbers more than the names do.
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