Booking Points by League: Average Points and the 40+ Line
Ten seasons, 21 divisions and every booking counted. How many points a match produces, how often it clears the 40+ line, and why your league matters more than the headline.
- 45.0Average booking points per match
- 60.4%Matches with 40+ booking points
- 1.66Fair odds, over 35.5 booking points
- 27.2%40+ matches that included a red card
Booking points markets look simple. Ten for a yellow, 25 for a red, and you pick a line. But the line only means something once you know what a normal match produces, and normal varies a lot depending on where you are. I wanted a baseline I could trust, so I went through 67,045 matches with full statistics across 21 European divisions.
The headline: the average match produced 45.0 booking points, and 60.4% of matches reached 40 or more. That works out to a fair price of 1.66 on over 35.5. That's the base I work from before I publish today's booking tips, and the rest of this study is about why I almost never use the overall figure on its own.
Q1Which booking points line is closest to a coin flip?
This table sets out every common line with its hit rate and the fair odds that rate implies, with no margin built in. Over 25.5 landed in 77.0% of matches, which is too short to be interesting. Over 35.5 came in 60.4% of the time, and over 45.5 dropped to 43.6%.
The average sits at 45.0, yet over 45.5 hits less than half the time. That gap tells you the distribution has a long right tail. A handful of explosive matches with reds drag the mean up, while the typical game finishes a little lower.
| Line | Over | Fair odds over | Under | Fair odds under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5 | 89.8% | 1.11 | 10.2% | 9.81 |
| 25.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 23.0% | 4.34 |
| 35.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 39.6% | 2.53 |
| 45.5 | 43.6% | 2.30 | 56.4% | 1.77 |
| 55.5 | 29.0% | 3.44 | 71.0% | 1.41 |
| 65.5 | 18.3% | 5.46 | 81.7% | 1.22 |
For me this is the most useful part of the table. If a price on the under at 45.5 is drifting well past 1.77, or the over at 55.5 is being offered much shorter than 3.44, I want to know why before I touch it. Over 65.5 at 18.3% is a lottery ticket unless something specific points to a feral match.
Q2Which top flights clear 40 booking points most often?
Here the overall picture falls apart. Super League Greece reached 40+ booking points in 78.3% of matches and averaged 58.3 points, with the Primeira Liga close behind at 76.1%. Those leagues sit well above the 60.4% baseline.
At the other end, the Eredivisie cleared 40+ in only 41.3% of matches and averaged 34.3 points. The Premier League isn't far off either: 51.1% and an average of 37.9. Taking the all-leagues fair price of 1.66 into an English or Dutch top-flight match would be a mistake.
View the data: 40+ booking points in 11 top flights
| Share of matches with 40 or more booking points | |
|---|---|
| Super League Greece | 78.3% |
| Primeira Liga | 76.1% |
| La Liga | 72.8% |
| Süper Lig | 67.9% |
| Serie A | 67.8% |
| Belgian Pro League | 62.3% |
| Ligue 1 | 58.1% |
| Bundesliga | 55.3% |
| Scottish Premiership | 55.2% |
| Premier League | 51.1% |
| Eredivisie | 41.3% |
I read this chart as a ranking of refereeing culture as much as anything else. The southern European leagues tend to have officials who stop play and reach for a card, while the Eredivisie runs on letting games flow. The fixture matters, but the league sets the starting point.
Q3Do lower divisions produce more booking points than top flights?
Not as a rule. The lower divisions mirror their top flights quite closely. Segunda División led with 40+ in 76.4% of matches, an average of 56.7 points and a fair price of 1.31. Serie B was almost level at 76.1% and an average of 55.1, so Spain and Italy run hot at both levels.
The English pyramid is the opposite. The Championship, League One and League Two all sit just above half on the 40+ line, with League Two lowest at 50.5% and fair odds of 1.98. That's barely different from the Premier League's 51.1%, which suggests the English game has its own lenient style that carries right down the divisions.
| League | Avg points | 30+ | 40+ | Fair odds 40+ | 50+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segunda División | 56.7 | 88.0% | 76.4% | 1.31 | 61.6% |
| Serie B | 55.1 | 88.9% | 76.1% | 1.31 | 60.7% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 47.5 | 81.7% | 67.1% | 1.49 | 49.2% |
| Scottish League Two | 41.9 | 76.0% | 58.6% | 1.71 | 38.4% |
| Ligue 2 | 43.8 | 76.2% | 57.3% | 1.74 | 41.1% |
| Scottish Championship | 39.3 | 72.3% | 52.7% | 1.90 | 34.8% |
| Scottish League One | 39.0 | 72.0% | 52.4% | 1.91 | 34.2% |
| Championship | 38.3 | 70.7% | 51.4% | 1.95 | 33.8% |
| League One | 38.0 | 69.5% | 50.6% | 1.98 | 32.5% |
| League Two | 37.8 | 69.0% | 50.5% | 1.98 | 32.4% |
The 50+ column is where I'd look for value in Spain and Italy's second tiers. Segunda División hit it in 61.6% of matches and Serie B in 60.7%, while League Two managed only 32.4%. Same line, very different bet.
Q4How much do red cards actually add to booking points?
Yellow cards supplied 89.0% of all booking points and reds 11.0%. The split hardly moves across tiers: reds made up 10.6% of points in the big five and 10.3% in the third and fourth tiers. Yellows do the heavy lifting everywhere.
Reds still matter at the margins, though. Of the matches that reached 40+ booking points, 27.2% included at least one red, compared with 17.5% of all matches. A single dismissal can carry a borderline game over the line.
View the data: where booking points come from
| Yellow cards | Red cards | |
|---|---|---|
| Big five | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| Other top flights | 87.8% | 12.2% |
| Second tiers | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| Third & fourth tiers | 89.7% | 10.3% |
| All matches | 89.0% | 11.0% |
This is also where my main caveat sits. Bookmakers don't all score a second yellow the same way, and the public records sometimes log it as a yellow, a red or both. A 35-point cap per player would trim totals slightly in those matches. And because there are no real booking-points prices in this data, every fair price here is a benchmark rather than a quote.
The playbook
How we would use these numbers before the next Yellow Cards bet.
- Start from the league. Swap the overall 60.4% for the league's own 40+ rate before pricing anything. Greece at 78.3% and the Eredivisie at 41.3% call for completely different starting points.
- Treat English football separately. From the Premier League at 51.1% down to League Two at 50.5%, the English game hovers around a coin flip on 40+. Don't let a busy fixture tempt you into pricing it like Serie B.
- Check the second-yellow rule. Reds were present in 27.2% of 40+ matches, so how your bookmaker scores a second yellow can decide a close bet. Read the rules before you back an over near the line.
Data & method
- Data: 21 European divisions, 2016/17–2025/26, 67,045 matches with full match statistics.
- Booking points use the simple convention 10 per yellow card and 25 per red card, applied to the recorded counts (no 35-point cap per player).
- The 40+ line is the same as over 35.5 booking points; X+ in charts means at least X points.
- Fair odds = 1 / observed frequency, with no bookmaker margin.
- Yellow/red split = total points from yellows (10 each) and from reds (25 each) as a share of all points in the group.
- Cards are counted as recorded in public match records; a second yellow that leads to a red may appear in the yellow count, the red count or both.
- Caveat: Bookmakers differ in how they score a second yellow; a 35-point cap per player would lower totals slightly in matches with second-yellow dismissals.
- Caveat: No booking-points prices are in the data, so fair odds are a benchmark only.
Quick Q&A
- What is the average number of booking points in a football match?
- Across 67,045 matches in 21 European divisions, the average was 45.0 booking points, using 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red. It varied widely by league, from 58.3 in Super League Greece to 34.3 in the Eredivisie.
- How often does a match go over 35.5 booking points?
- Over 35.5, which is the same as 40 or more points, landed in 60.4% of matches. That gives a fair price of 1.66 before any bookmaker margin.
- Which league has the most booking points?
- Among top flights, Super League Greece reached 40+ booking points most often, in 78.3% of matches. In the lower divisions, Segunda División led with 76.4% and an average of 56.7 points.
I'm Liora Westgate, and I focus on yellow card markets, where referee habits, derby needle and what's actually on the line shape the numbers more than the names do.
More from Liora Westgate →
