HT/FT in Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal: 9 Results
Three of Europe's busiest second-tier leagues look almost identical to the big five at half-time and full-time, with one Dutch exception worth knowing.
- 27.4%Home/Home in Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal
- 14.3%Draw/Draw in the three leagues
- 29.1%Home/Home in the Eredivisie
- 8,846Matches in the three leagues
There's a habit among bettors of treating Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal as wilder, more open versions of the big five. I wanted to test that through the market I care about most, Half-Time/Full-Time, using 8,846 matches across the Belgian Pro League, Eredivisie and Primeira Liga.
The headline answer is that the shape barely changes. Home/Home landed 27.4% across the three leagues against 26.4% in the big five, and Draw/Draw sat at 14.3% against 14.7%. The one real outlier is the Eredivisie's front-running home sides. If you want the daily picks rather than the theory, my free HT/FT predictions page is where they live.
Q1Do these three leagues behave differently from the big five?
This dumbbell lines up every HT/FT outcome for the pooled three leagues against the big five's 17,934 matches. What strikes me is how tightly the dots sit together. Away/Away is slightly more common here at 18.1% against 17.6%, while Draw/Home comes in at 14.3% against 14.8%.
Full reversals, where the half-time leader ends up losing, came to 5.0% of matches in the three leagues and 5.1% in the big five. The old idea that these leagues are full of chaotic comebacks just isn't there in the numbers.
Big five: 17,934 matches; Belgium, Netherlands and Portugal: 8,846 matches.
View the data: belgium, netherlands, portugal vs the big five
| Big five | BE/NL/PT | |
|---|---|---|
| Home/Home | 26.4% | 27.4% |
| Home/Draw | 5.2% | 5.0% |
| Home/Away | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Draw/Home | 14.8% | 14.3% |
| Draw/Draw | 14.7% | 14.3% |
| Draw/Away | 11.0% | 11.1% |
| Away/Home | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Away/Draw | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| Away/Away | 17.6% | 18.1% |
For a bettor, that means any edge in these leagues won't come from the league label. You have to find it in individual teams and how they start matches.
Q2Which of the three leagues favours home sides leading throughout?
Split the pool apart and the Eredivisie stands out. Its Home/Home rate of 29.1% clearly beats Belgium's 26.4% and Portugal's 26.6%, and it pairs that with the lowest Draw/Draw rate of the three at 13.5%. Dutch home sides that get in front tend to stay in front, and fewer matches drift goalless or level from start to finish.
Belgium sits at the other end, with Draw/Draw at 14.9% and the highest Away/Home rate at 3.1%. Portugal is the steadiest at the break: its Home/Away rate of 1.7% is the lowest in the table, so home leads there rarely collapse into defeats.
View the data: ht/ft results by league
| Belgian Pro League | Eredivisie | Primeira Liga | Big five | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home/Home | 26.4% | 29.1% | 26.6% | 26.4% |
| Home/Draw | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| Home/Away | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Draw/Home | 14.3% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 14.8% |
| Draw/Draw | 14.9% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 14.7% |
| Draw/Away | 10.6% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.0% |
| Away/Home | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| Away/Draw | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| Away/Away | 18.3% | 17.9% | 18.2% | 17.6% |
I read Belgium as the cagier league and the Netherlands as the one where the opening half more often tells the story.
Q3Can I trust one season's Home/Home rate in these leagues?
This is where patience matters. The Eredivisie's Home/Home rate ran anywhere from 24.8% to 34.6% across the seasons, Portugal's from 22.5% to 31.0%, and Belgium's from 21.2% to 29.6%. Those lines cross each other repeatedly, and no league holds the top spot for long.
The main caveat of this whole study lives here. A single league-season holds only about 250 to 340 matches, so swings of 5 points or more are mostly noise, and Belgium's seasons vary in length because of its play-off format. I'd never build a view on one strong or weak campaign.
View the data: home/home rate by season
| Belgian Pro League | Eredivisie | Primeira Liga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | 27.1% | 29.4% | 31.0% |
| 2017/18 | 21.2% | 24.8% | 29.7% |
| 2018/19 | 24.2% | 34.6% | 29.1% |
| 2019/20 | 28.9% | 34.5% | 23.5% |
| 2020/21 | 24.7% | 27.5% | 24.5% |
| 2021/22 | 25.3% | 24.8% | 24.2% |
| 2022/23 | 29.6% | 28.8% | 30.1% |
| 2023/24 | 28.8% | 26.8% | 22.5% |
| 2024/25 | 28.0% | 28.8% | 27.5% |
| 2025/26 | 24.8% | 32.7% | 23.9% |
What survives the noise is the Eredivisie's tendency to sit near the top over the full run, which is why I lean on the pooled figures rather than last season's.
Q4What price do I need to beat in each league?
Fair odds here are simply one divided by the observed rate, with no margin built in. They're a model of the break-even price, not a forecast. Home/Home is fair at 3.44 in the Eredivisie, against 3.79 in Belgium and 3.76 in Portugal, so a Dutch home lead-and-win price that looks generous elsewhere may be thin there.
The reversals show the biggest gaps. Home/Away is fair at 58.82 in Portugal but 38.46 in Belgium, and Away/Home is fair at 32.26 in Belgium against 40.00 in the Eredivisie. Away/Away barely moves, from 5.46 to 5.59.
| Result | Belgian Pro League | Eredivisie | Primeira Liga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home/Home | 3.79 | 3.44 | 3.76 |
| Home/Draw | 20.41 | 20.83 | 18.87 |
| Home/Away | 38.46 | 43.48 | 58.82 |
| Draw/Home | 6.99 | 7.30 | 6.71 |
| Draw/Draw | 6.71 | 7.41 | 6.94 |
| Draw/Away | 9.43 | 9.17 | 8.47 |
| Away/Home | 32.26 | 40.00 | 37.04 |
| Away/Draw | 20.00 | 19.23 | 22.73 |
| Away/Away | 5.46 | 5.59 | 5.49 |
Any price a major bookmaker offers carries a margin, so you need a number comfortably above these just to stand still.
The playbook
How we would use these numbers before the next HT/FT bet.
- Price leagues, not regions. Don't lump these leagues together. Draw/Draw is fair at 6.71 in Belgium but 7.41 in the Eredivisie, so the same price can be value in one and poor in the other.
- Respect Dutch home starts. The Eredivisie's 29.1% Home/Home rate is the clearest signal in the study. Only back it above the 3.44 fair line, and only when team-level form supports a fast home start.
- Ignore one-season swings. Portugal's Home/Home rate moved between 22.5% and 31.0% by season, mostly noise. Anchor your expectations to the pooled rates before reacting to a hot or cold campaign.
Data & method
- Data: Belgian Pro League, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga, 2016/17–2025/26, 8,846 matches.
- HT/FT outcomes are written half-time result / full-time result from the home side's view (Home/Draw = home led at the break, match drawn).
- Leagues: Belgian Pro League (regular season and any recorded play-off matches), Eredivisie, Primeira Liga; seasons 2016/17–2025/26.
- Big-five comparison pools the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 over the same seasons.
- Fair odds are 1 ÷ observed frequency (no margin); they show the price at which a bet would only break even.
- Caveat: Single league-seasons hold only about 250–340 matches, so season-to-season swings of 5 points or more are mostly noise.
- Caveat: Belgian Pro League seasons in the data range from 239 to 312 matches, so its seasons are not all alike.
Quick Q&A
- What is the most common HT/FT result in the Eredivisie?
- Home/Home, which landed in 29.1% of Eredivisie matches. That works out to a fair price of 3.44 before any bookmaker margin.
- Are HT/FT comebacks more common in Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal than in the big five?
- No. Full reversals made up 5.0% of matches in the three leagues and 5.1% in the big five, so they're essentially the same.
- Which league has the most Draw/Draw results?
- The Belgian Pro League, at 14.9% with a fair price of 6.71. The Eredivisie had the fewest at 13.5%.
I'm Imogen Vance, and I focus on Half-Time/Full-Time markets, where you can't just ask who wins but have to picture how the ninety minutes actually unfolds.
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